I was honored to receive the Lawrence R. Klein Blue Chip Forecasting Award October 11^th at the University Club in New York City, and was privileged to have the award presented by our chairman and CEO, Jerre Stead. It is exciting and rewarding to have the hard work of the US macroeconomic forecasting team at IHS Markit be recognized for our hard work and forecasting excellence.

Left to right: Nariman Behravesh, Chief Economist, IHS Markit; Jerre Stead, Chairman and CEO, IHS Markit; Randell E. Moore, Editor, Blue Chip Economic Indicators

Additionally, this award has special meaning as Professor Klein was my mentor and doctoral dissertation advisor at U Penn. He taught me much of what I know about econometrics and forecasting, knowledge which served as the foundation of my 40-year career in economic forecasting. I am grateful to accept this award in Professor Klein’s memory.

I count myself lucky to be a member of such a professional and hardworking team. This award demonstrates the exceptional work of our economists, exemplifies the best of what our experts do every day, and illustrates the value IHS Markit delivers to its clients. 

We are particularly excited as our team expands to include our new colleagues from Macroeconomic Advisers; Macroeconomic Advisers is recognized as one of the most respected forecasters of the US economy, also being awarded the Lawrence R. Klein Blue Chip Forecasting Award in 1993 and again in 1995. Bringing together our two award winning teams is exciting, and will offer the opportunity to further enhance our US economics teams, forecasting accuracy and excellence.

The event also gave me the opportunity to preview my forecast for the US economic outlook for 2018:

• I expect a solid, but unexciting growth rate of between 2.0% and 2.5% in the US, with growth supported by consumer spending and housing. 
• Commodity markets will remain over-supplied, with low probability of a sharp rise in prices in the short-term. 
• The biggest threat to the US economic recovery in the near-term is a policy mistake – a government shutdown and/or a messy debt ceiling debate – or an escalating trade conflict. 
• The greatest challenge to the sustained long-term performance of the US economy is the puzzlingly low growth of productivity, especially in light of the apparent explosion of new technologies.

I will be releasing my complete Top-10 Predictions for the Global Economy in 2018 in mid-December.

Nariman Behravesh is the Chief Economist at IHS Markit
Posted 13 October 2017