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Oct 18, 2023
CCUS – Too Little, Too Late, Too Slow – It’s No Panacea
Despite the recent surge of policy incentives for carbon capture projects, the world is not on track to meet the CO2 reductions expected from this technology by 2050:
- Supercharged incentives for carbon capture projects in the last
year have accelerated the momentum that this market is
experiencing. From the USA, increasing more than 70% the tax
credits for carbon capture projects, to Europe looking into
mandating 50MMTPA of CO2 storage for oil and gas
producers, the policy landmark for carbon capture projects is
evolving quickly to improve the conditions for this
technology.
- Despite the expected momentous growth in carbon capture (see the S&P Global Commodity Insights CCUS projects analytics dashboard - part of the Clean Energy Technology service), more efforts are needed to close the gap between the projected CO2 capture capacity installations and the expected CO2 reduction amounts to meet the climate ambitions. S&P Global developed a bottom-up outlook for CO2 capture capacity installations using an "emitter-driven" methodology that incorporates: S&P analysis on country attractiveness, S&P CCUS project analytics, S&P database on emitters profile, carbon pricing and emissions, expertise of S&P's industry and regional specialists, and characterization of high-level CO2 storage capacity.
- The S&P Global Commodity Insights outlook indicates that by
2030, we will have operational projects able to capture around 25%
of the 1 Gigaton of CO2/y needed to meet the Net Zero
Scenario from the IEA, putting in perspective how even in the
short-term we are far from meeting the climate goals. Although
North America and Europe are leading the way accounting for more
than 67% of the projected capture capacity installed, the CCUS
industry still needs more incentives from other regions to get
closer to the climate targets.
- The gap is exacerbated when the S&P Global Commodity
Insights CCUS capture capacity outlook by 2050 is compared to
scenarios like the IPCC-1.5 degree Celsius. Our S&P Global
outlook estimates the capture capacity will reach 2.2 Gigaton of
CO2/y by 2050 mainly driven by China, which translates
into only 4% of the expected CO2 reductions by the
IPCC-1.5-degree Celsius scenario. Although S&P outlook
estimates a historical growth in capacity installations for the
next three decades, the CCUS industry still needs a significant
improvement in the crucial drivers like policy, technology
innovations and CCUS hubs to close the gap between the expected and
the needed capture capacity to meet our climate targets.
For more information regarding our CCUS market coverage, alongside the fundamental insights and data on the most important clean energy technologies, delivered as part of our Clean Energy Technology service, please click here.
This article was published by S&P Global Commodity Insights and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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