There are more than 90% chances that El Niño will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, according to the latest ENSO forecast released by the US Climate Prediction Center July 13, with the climate phenomenon possibly affecting crop production patterns and altering trade flows.
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RegistroThe US climate agency said there are 82% chances of weak conditions turning moderate October-December and a 52% chance of a strong El Niño emerging. It has forecast sea surface temperatures to be more than 2.5 C higher than average by November.
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has forecast a 70% chance of an El Niño forming in 2023 and sea surface temperatures rising 2.8 C by December, it said July 4.
El Niño increases the tendency for wetter conditions in East Africa and east Asia and drier conditions, including drought, in West Africa, southern Africa, India, Southeast Asia, Australia and the northern areas of South and Central America.
El Niño could affect global agricultural yields and alter trade flows in the 2023-24 season, according to agricultural bodies, meteorological agencies and market participants.
Such climate conditions have developed over tropical Pacific for the first time in seven years, setting the stage for a likely surge in global temperatures and affecting the production patterns of various crops, the World Meteorological Organization said in a report earlier this month.
The formation of an El Niño in 2023 could lead to less showers over parts of Australia, Brazil, India and Southeast Asia, weighing on grains and oilseeds production.
Drier weather due to a potential El Niño would impact palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia that together account for 85% of the world's palm oil supply. While a mild El Niño could reduce Malaysia's palm oil production by 10%, a severe one could pull it down as much as 20%.
Forecast poor rainfall along with dryness would impact Australia's wheat output in MY 2023-24 (October-September). Australia is expected to harvest 26.2 million mt wheat in MY 2023-24, down 33.9% on the year, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences said.
On the other hand, it could help bring above-average rainfall in parts of Argentina and the US and boost output of crops like soybean, corn and wheat in these regions. Argentina is estimated to harvest 48 million mt soybean in MY 2023-24, nearly doubling on the year from 25 million mt in the previous season. Brazil soybean output is also pegged to rise around 4% on the year to 163 million mt in MY 2023-24, the USDA said.