In this week’s Market Movers with Ashish Dhyani:
- Chinese independent refiners' appetite for Iranian crude in spotlight
- Israel-Iran conflict could disrupt wheat supplies to Southeast Asia
- Asian thermal coal inquiries rise as temperatures increase
- Chinese primary aluminum prices to stay volatile
- China’s refined copper output to decline in April
This week, Iranian crude flows to China are expected to be stable despite concerns about possible US sanctions on Iran's oil exports following its drone attacks on Israel.
Iranian cargoes, usually masked as blended crudes that originate from Malaysia, have been the main feedstock for Chinese independent refineries.
These refiners could also face less competition when buying Venezuelan crude as India pares purchases due to renewed US sanctions.
In agriculture, Asian markets are focused on the Israel-Iran conflict, as a further escalation may disrupt Black Sea wheat supplies to Southeast Asia by increasing transportation costs via the Suez Canal.
In thermal coal, Chinese inquiries for low-mid calorific value coal are expected to persist as rising temperatures prompt restocking.
In India, expectations of increased power demand could also drive some inquiries.
Meanwhile, Indonesian and Australian suppliers might maintain elevated prices anticipating summer demand.
In metals, China’s refined copper output in April is expected to decline due to planned maintenance and tight raw material supply.
Market participants in China will be closely monitoring the pace of Russia’s aluminum exports after a recent action by the US and UK imposed trading and delivery restrictions on Russian-origin aluminum.
Climate action organization Science Based Targets initiative is expected to provide guidelines in the coming weeks to bolster confidence in carbon markets.
SBTi’s recent move to allow companies to use carbon credits to offset indirect emissions in their supply chains has triggered fierce debate amid criticism from media and academics about the carbon market’s integrity.
I’m Ashish Dhyani, thank you for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.