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Get a complete view on the impact of the decoupled system that increases disruption for specific countries, sectors and supply chains.
The US-mainland China relationship that has underpinned globalization for decades has begun to unravel, with far-reaching geopolitical and economic consequences for business operations around the world. A dispute that centered around commercial issues of trade, investment, currency, market access, and intellectual property rights as recently as 2018 has rapidly expanded to into a broad political rivalry that encompasses geopolitical alliances, state security, and public health. What will shift in policy and geopolitical relations mean for business between these nations, sourcing opportunities, and growth in existing business? Are you prepared?
Learn more about our work on US China Decoupling We can help you navigate the economic, geopolitical, and trade shifts coming
Whether we are looking at policy changes, political upheaval, trade wars, or security concerns, our team will develop specific scenario reports and pathways for policy responses, economic shifts, and industry challenges. We offer insights into the dynamics relevant for your exposures and sectors of interest enabling you to set a steady path forward amidst uncertainty.
Working closely with you to explore relevant scenarios and impacts:
Scenarios workshop
2 hours led by our economists, country risk and industry experts. The workshop convenes senior leadership representatives from across your business to ensure all perspectives are captured. The workshop would include a brief presentation of our US-China Decoupling scenarios, followed by a brainstorming session to identify your top concerns in terms of business impacts, before exploring geopolitical and industry themes and indicators leading to these.
Customized scenario reports and pathways and impacts
Based on insights captured during the workshop, we will build up to three bespoke macro-level 5-year scenarios, with associated sets of geopolitical and industry indicators to monitor, and qualitative and quantitative assessment of impacts, for approval by your team before delivery in a final report.
Quarterly update reports
To help you track developments and which scenario is becoming more likely, we provide quarterly update reports in the following 12-month period containing alerts and analysis of which indicators have been triggered that are relevant to the scenarios and associated impacts.
Evaluate specific opportunities or ventures in light of new and evolving challenges. Work with us to understand how politics, economics, trade, and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by the decoupling and the impacts it is generating, and how to quantify these effectively.
Working closely with you to explore market entry and opportunity assessments. Support can include:
Risk quantification
We help you asses the economic, demographic, and risk conditions of new partners and sourcing locations including origin markets that already support a product or segment, and origin markets that produce adjacent products or segments.
Sourcing strategy
Our experts can help you set a strategy that is resilient to local, regional, and global events. Are there hidden or underlying risks that exist across your current strategy that weaken your diversification?
Customized reports for emerging markets
Deep dives on the emerging markets you identify as core to your sourcing plans. We provide actionable insights into the stakeholder and competitive landscape, untapped industry and regulatory trends to exploit, quantifying and qualifying new opportunities, and comparative benchmarking of similar markets in a region. Our analysis is always forward-looking, taking critical challenges like the pandemic into account.
Our experts across country risk and geopolitics, economics and industry, and sourcing and supply chain track global developments and indicators on a daily basis to form views on what it all means for our clients.
Executive workshops and custom presentations
Our experts are available to interact directly with your executive teams in workshops and custom presentations to inform decision makings, help untangle the significance and impacts of global developments from the decoupling. We work with you to understand how politics, economics and industry dynamics will affect the opportunity at hand – any risks introduced by rivalry between the US and China, and how to quantify these effectively. Book now
Shorter single-issue discussions or meetings can be booked through Experts by S&P Global
Built on a foundation of excellence in custom solutions, and scenario creation
Geopolitical scenarios Understand the political and policy implications from US-China decoupling and how these changes will impact political stability, industry, global economies, supply chains and more.
Industry Scenarios Our experts can help you understand which industries and geographies will feel the consequences of the decoupling.
Economic Scenarios Understand how decoupling will effect commodity prices, exchange rates, monetary and financial policy, energy prices, demographics and more as you build your new strategic plans.
Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact due to new trade rules? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
Gov Revenue Quantify how the china-US decoupling could impact, positively or negatively, your jurisdictions’ capacity to plan, budget and deliver vital public services.
Integrity Due Diligence A commercial view on any possible risks you could face with a new sourcing partner, as well as an assessment of the company’s key strengths and weaknesses.
Stakeholder Influence Mapping With decoupling comes new partnerships, get an independent assessment of which risks are likely to serve as priorities for potential investors and examples from other jurisdictions on how these risks have impacted inward investment.
Economic Impact Do you need to demonstrate a positive jobs and economic impact from new opportunities due to decoupling? We provide comprehensive assessments that quantify and clearly articulate the economic ripple effect (on jobs, tax revenues, etc.) arising from changes to the status quo.
Country Risk Investment Model Utilizing our country expertise, sector analysis, and granular risk scores we can forecasts and measure the expected financial impact decoupling could have on cash flows and investment returns and activities.
Experts
Natznet Tesfay
Her areas of specialization include analysis of political
developments affecting the offshore energy sector in West Africa,
particularly Nigeria; commercial developments, especially in
mining, energy, and infrastructure in East Africa; and piracy risks
in the Gulf of Aden and Gulf of Guinea. Natznet leads the
development of the Africa risk indicator and horizon scanning
infrastructure, drawing on a range of methodologies such as
geospatial analysis and scenario modelling techniques. She supports
business growth across the continent, advising C-level executives
on market entry, stakeholder engagement and risk management, and
African governments on leveraging their natural resource potential
for sustained economic growth. In 2017, Natznet was named a Young
Global Leader by the World Economic Forum.Natznet regularly speaks in major media outlets and at
high-level conferences. Previously, at Exclusive Analysis she
managed the Africa intelligence team of in-country analysts and
sources, as well as Exclusive Analysis's Johannesburg office. She
also advised municipal governments on sustainably developing
megacities and national governments on the development of free
trade zones, foreign policy and the mining sector in East Africa.
Natznet degrees include a BA in Government from Harvard University
and a MSc in Urbanization and Development from the London School of
Economics.
Carlos, Director of Latin America Country Risk Analysis and
Forecasting, is responsible for the generation of commercially
relevant political and violent risks forecasts for a variety of
sectors in Latin America, including energy, manufacturing, mining
and insurance. He manages a team of Latin American experts, as well
as a remote network of contributors based in the region, covering
risks such as expropriation, non-payment, contract frustration,
civil unrest, business disruption and security-related risks
(extortion, kidnapping, crime and terrorism). Carlos has also
worked and delivered numerous consulting projects for a variety of
clients interested in understanding the role of stakeholders and
risks at the project level in Latin America. His areas of expertise
include petroleum policy and economics, public governance in
natural resource rich countries, international relations, criminal
dynamics in Latin America and political economy.He holds a BA in International Studies from Universidad Central
de Venezuela (Magna Cum-Laude), an MA in International Political
Economy from Birmingham University (distinction) and an LLM in
Petroleum Law and Policy (distinction) from Dundee University.
The Integrated Research team works with our experts to combine
proprietary data and insights from across economics, country risk,
and industry teams to create holistic, forward-looking analysis
that helps our clients make effective business decisions. He has
previously led the Asia-Pacific desk and the Political Risk desk
for our Country Risk team where he was responsible for the global
calibration of political and business risks and development of the
Country Risk team's methodology. He assessed systemic credit and
liquidity risks to UK financial stability for the Bank of England;
built stochastic models to forecast capital adequacy for financial
companies at Moore Stephens Consulting; and worked in RBS's equity
derivatives business.He earned a Ph.D. in political economy at the University of
Cambridge with a thesis on the social epidemiology of income
inequality in India. His previous academic work compared Indonesia
and Malaysia during the Asian Financial Crisis.
She was previously the head of MENA corporate investigations at
FTI Consulting where she managed many complex multi-jurisdictional
matters in the field of integrity due diligence, asset tracing and
litigation support, including in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and
Libya.Prior to her move into consulting, she was head of the Middle
East and North Africa Country Risk Forecasting team at S&P
Global, responsible for political risk forecasting, scenario
modelling and quantitative risk scoring across the whole region.
Anna has led on projects including devising a political risk model
relating to the security of Qatari food imports, managing a series
of in-depth MENA region country studies for a US government client,
and war-gaming possible future developments in the Syria conflict.
She has provided expert comment to several media outlets including
Al Jazeera, Reuters and the BBC. Anna started her career as an
Arabic linguist with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office.Anna holds an MA with Distinction in Arabic from the School of
Oriental and African Studies, having written her dissertation on
1950s-60s Iraqi poetry. She also holds a 1st class honors degree in
Arabic from the University of Edinburgh and studied in Cairo and
Damascus. She speaks French and Arabic.
Dr. John presents his analysis in a manner that allows clients
not only to understand the context of current US and global news
events, but how those incidents will impact their industry's
performance over time. He has appeared in numerous media outlets,
such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, Time Magazine,
BBC, NPR, CNBC, and The Associated Press, discussing topics like US
elections, American foreign policy, and domestic legislation. In
his role of principal global risk adviser, he has delivered dozens
of keynote speeches and spoken to thousands of clients on macro
country risk topics, from issues like populism and trade protection
to US sanctions and international terrorism. In his previous work
experience with the U.S. Department of State, he held roles
responsible for conducting economic policy for the United States
Embassy in Panama and overseeing the American Citizen Services unit
in Hong Kong. He also worked at the World Bank, where he managed
several projects in production of the World Development Indicators
(WDI). His other assignments have included the U.S. Department of
the Treasury as a Presidential Management Fellow, the Center for
Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the World Trade
Center.Dr. John earned a Ph.D. in political science from Ohio State
University and a master's degree in international relations from
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Study (SAIS).
