Monthly GDP Index Rose 0.2% in December 2018

This release was originally scheduled for January 29, 2019 but was delayed as a result of the recent lapse in federal funding.

Monthly GDP rose 0.2% in December following an unrevised 0.1% increase in November. The December increase was more than accounted for by a jump in the pace of nonfarm inventory-building; monthly final sales declined in December, reflecting a sharp widening of the trade deficit. The level of GDP in December was 0.8% above the fourth-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest tracking forecast of 1.2% GDP growth in the first quarter is a decline in monthly GDP in January followed by moderate growth over February and March.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 27 February 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence