Monthly GDP Index Rose 0.1% in November 2018

This release was originally scheduled for December 29, 2019 but was delayed as a result of the recent lapse in federal funding.

Monthly GDP rose 0.1% in November following a 0.4% increase in October that was revised up by 0.1 percentage point. In November, positive contributions from domestic final sales (largely PCE) and net exports (mainly a decline in imports) were nearly offset by a large, negative contribution from inventory investment. Monthly GDP in November was 1.8% above the third-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our estimate of 2.2% GDP growth in the fourth quarter is a 0.4% (not annualized) increase of monthly GDP in December.

Macroeconomic Advisers by IHS Markit's index of Monthly GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 27 February 2019 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

Kathleen Navin, Economics Executive Director, US Macroeconomics, S&P Global Market Intelligence