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    Mobility and Energy Future

    The mobility sector will undergo more change in coming years than it has in the past century. The pace of change is the question—not whether change occurs. Are you prepared?

    Will change be of a revolutionary nature, topple incumbents in the automotive and energy industries, and dramatically reshape the mobility and energy sector? Or will it be gradual and offer opportunities for companies—incumbents and new entrants—to adapt to changing technology, government policies, business models, and consumer behavior?

    The Mobility and Energy Future service provides insight, analysis, and data to keep members ahead of the curve in understanding how regulations, technology, new business models, and consumers are impacting oil, energy demand, and the automotive industry plus its supply chain.

    Trillions of dollars of investment capital are at stake. Our service delivers research that addresses the latest developments and insights while also providing a scenario framework for decision-making.

    The Big Questions

    Among the big questions addressed by Mobility and Energy Future are:

    • How will electric cars and fuel economy standards impact oil demand?
    • Is a peak in oil demand near—or still decades away?
    • Will developments in driverless technology disrupt car sales and energy use faster than many think?
    • How will ride-hailing alter car use and car buying trends?
    • How will government policies at the national and local levels evolve and shape the future of electric cars and mobility service companies? How will congestion, pollution, industrial policy, and economic security influence these policies?
    • Will the scale of battery supply chains increase in time to satisfy projected battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid sales?
    • What are companies doing to position themselves to succeed in the automotive system of the future?

    Get a first-hand look at Refinery of the Future solutions with free access to the Oil Markets, Midstream, and Downstream Demo Hub Free access to select Oil Markets, Midstream, and Downstream research, analysis, and insight.
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    About this service

    This offering provides insight on the future of cars and the oil, automotive, chemicals and power industries. The goal of this service is to help clients effectively develop long-term business strategies.

    Understanding the pulse of change in the short- and long-term are at the heart of this new service. From monthly updates on battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid sales, analysis of new policy and business developments, to our scenario-based outlooks that span to 2052, the Mobility and Energy Future service features ground-breaking insights for the twenty-first century and provides an in depth look at how automotive fleets will evolve from the personally-owned model of the past century to a multidimensional competitive environment where mobility service companies, electric powertrains and driverless technology alter traditional buying and use patterns.

    For the automotive industry, understanding the patterns of future car ownership and usage will be vital in preparing for tomorrow’s market. The market will become more complex as ride-sharing platforms and self-driving cars will give consumers an increasing number of options for personal mobility. Automakers and suppliers will need to adapt their products and business models to ensure they are prepared for greater diversity, the resizing of markets, battery charging needs, and related response from electric power markets.

    For the oil and gas industry, light vehicles represent the most important end-market, accounting for one-third of global refined product demand and nearly 40% of total oil demand growth since 2000.

    For the utilities industry, as electric cars become more widespread, the power generation and distribution industries will forge new ties with a wide array of other industries. This presents both challenges and opportunities throughout the energy industry. New demand will have to be managed at a time of wider transformation.

    With Mobility and Energy Future you can:

    • Identify short- and long-term opportunities
    • Anticipate future changes
    • Minimize risk by offering better preparedness
    • Explore the validity of commonly held beliefs
    • Develop and test business strategies

    What's included

    Monthly sales data

    Monthly automotive sales for 11 key markets including China, US, Germany, Italy, Spain, and France.

    • Data on total LV sales, with battery-electric and plug-in hybrid subtotals
    • Analysis and implications
    Key Developments and Trends

    Periodic analysis of key developments and trends

    • New twice-a-year ZEV watch report offering a comprehensive assessment of the five-year outlook for adoption of zero-emission LVs and MHVs—including those fueled by electricity and hydrogen. The report also offers assessments of the ZEV value chain—including charging and batteries—as well as biofuels.
    • Emissions and other regulatory policies
    • Penetration of autonomous technologies, new mobility business models, and new powertrains
    • Mobility demand modeling and VMT trends
    • Technological developments in new mobility technologies
    Light Vehicle Forecasts

    Light Vehicle Long term forecasts in two scenarios (Inflections (base case) and Green Rules)

    • Global vehicle miles traveled analysis
    • Detailed channel analysis (personal or ride hailing) by key market
    • Detailed channel analysis of autonomous technology adoption
    • Sales outlooks to 2050 by power train by region and country
    • Fleet outlooks to 2050 by powertrain by region and country
    • Fuel economy standards by region and country
    • Transport fuel demand by region and country (battery electric, plug in electric, natural gas, fuel cell, ethanol, gasoline, diesel) to 2050
    Medium and Heavy Vehicle Forecasts

    Medium and Heavy Vehicle (MHV) long-term forecasts in two scenarios

    • Sales, fleet and fuel demand outlooks to 2050
    • Two scenarios included
    • Detail on the policy, technology, and cost assumptions
    • Total cost of ownership analysis
    • Markets covered: China, United States, Europe and Japan
    • Updated once a year
    • Data available in annual buckets
    Analyst access
    Mobility and Energy Future service members also receive individual access to analysts

    How will cities and cars adapt to changing motorization trends

    City motorization peaks when urbanization rates reach 80%, but congestion is just one of many factors that could affect future mobility trends.

    Click sections below to explore current trends.

    Experts

    Tom De Vleesschauwer

    Tom has been involved in the international automotive industry for nearly two decades and is currently responsible for both long-term market research and business consulting projects for the Automotive Group. He has contributed to special projects assessing technical, business, regulatory and societal trends to help senior management improve decision-making. He has assisted automotive manufacturers, global suppliers, NGOs and government agencies, including European Commission and Parliament. Recently, his work encompassed areas such as biofuels market potential, CO2 forecasting evaluations and future mobility outlooks.Tom regularly contributes to several company publications and is frequently quoted in the media. Previously, he was with the Automotive Group of Standard & Poor's DRI, and Euromoney Financial Publications. During his formative academic years, he was a marketing trainee at Citroen Belux and Land Rover North America.Tom holds a Bachelor of Business Administration from Northwood University in Midland, Michigan, US, a Masters of Business Administration from Cardiff Business School, UK, and an IVA-A HBO (Honors) from IVA in Driebergen, Netherlands.

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    Mario Franjičević

    Mario is a research expert in the field of automotive Future Mobility. Mario analyses and forecasts global trends and the disruptive impact of mobility-as-a-service, electrification, and autonomous driving technologies on the auto industry. Since 2011, he is part of the automotive division of S&P Global. Prior to his current role, Mario was responsible for volume forecast and market analysis of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in Europe and the Middle-East/Africa (EMEA). During that period, he gained specialized knowledge in vehicle manufacturers' BEV (battery electric vehicles) platform strategies.Mario was employed by Daimler AG, BMW Group Japan, and Mitsumi Electronics, where he had roles in market research, price/volume planning and product management.Mario is a graduate of the University of Applied Sciences Nürtingen, Germany, Business Administration. He is a post-graduate fellowship holder of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) - "SP Japan" The program that tightens business and cultural relations between Germany and Japan in an 18-month stay in Japan. Mario is fluent in: German, English and Croatian. Mario also speaks intermediate Japanese.

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    Nigel Griffiths

    Nigel has more than 30 years of direct experience in analyzing and forecasting demand trends and light vehicle sales in the global automotive industry. He is focused on the micro economics of the auto industry. He has consulted on multiple forecast projects on a global, regional, national and sub national level. Most recently his work involves modeling the long term autmotive impacts of new mobilty trends including new mobilty concepts and autonomous cars. His current role involves the development of sensitivity and scenario-based automotive forecasting for short/medium term contingency planning and long term strategy planning for the industry.Nigel has been with the company since 1992, and now helps to steer the core global and country-level light vehicle sales forecasts. Earlier in his career, he worked for an international automotive consulting company, where he developed new analytical approaches to accommodate anticipated structural change in car consumer behavior at both regional and city levels in response to global adaptation of new urban mobility patterns. Nigel holds a first-class honors degree in economics, a master's degree in industrial and business economics, and an MBA from Cardiff Business School in Wales, United Kingdom, where he specialized in the economics of the motor industry. Nigel has received numerous awards for study and analysis, including the Alexander Duckhams Prize of the Institute of the Motor Industry, the Adam Smith Medal and the Sir Julian Hodge Prize of the University of Wales.

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