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Jun 07, 2021
Daily Global Market Summary - 7 June 2021
Most major European equity indices closed higher, while US and APAC markets were mixed. US and benchmark European government bonds closed lower. European iTraxx and CDX-NA credit indices were both flat across IG and high yield. Gold and silver closed higher, copper was flat, and the US dollar, oil, and natural gas were lower on the day.
Please note that we are now including a link to the profiles of contributing authors who are available for one-on-one discussions through our newly launched Experts by IHS Markit platform.
Americas
1. Major US equity indices closed mixed; Russell 2000 +1.4%, Nasdaq
+0.5%, S&P 500 -0.1%, and DJIA -0.4%.
2. 10yr US govt bonds closed +2bps/1.57% yield and 30yr bonds
+2bps/2.25% yield.
3. CDX-NAIG closed flat/50bps and CDX-NAHY flat/283bps.
4. DXY US dollar index closed -0.2%/89.95.
5. Gold closed +0.4%/$1,899 per troy oz, silver +0.4%/$28.02 per
troy oz, and copper flat/$4.53 per pound.
6. Crude oil closed -0.6%/$69.23 per barrel and natural gas closed
-0.9%/$3.07 per mmbtu.
7. President Joe Biden's first budget request on May 28 furnished
the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Fuel Energy
with a new and longer name that reflects a revised mission to
decarbonize the nation's economy with technologies that promote
greater use of hydrogen and carbon capture, use, and storage. The
DOE fiscal year 2022 budget request renames it the Office of Fossil
Energy and Carbon Management (FECM), and charges it with advancing
Biden's goal to reach net-zero carbon levels by 2050 in alignment
with the 2015 Paris Agreement. DOE is not just making cosmetic
changes with a name change, nor is it stopping at taking newly
developed technology to the point of deployment. It is creating an
Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED), which, armed with a
$400 million budget (subject to congressional approval), will serve
as DOE's hub for demonstrating "near- and mid-term" technologies
and systems with the goal of quicker commercial adoption and
increased availability. (IHS Markit Climate and Sustainability
News' Amena
Saiyid)
8. The Securities and Exchange Commission is drafting a proposal
that would restrict plans that corporate insiders use to avoid
insider-trading claims when buying or selling their own company's
stock. Speaking Monday at The Wall Street Journal's CFO Network
event, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler said he is seeking to revise rules
that govern the arrangements, known as 10b5-1 plans. Insiders set
up plans ahead of time and use them to schedule future trades. The
arrangement gives executives a defense against insider-trading
claims that would stem from having undisclosed material nonpublic
information at the time of a trade. (WSJ)
9. U.S. health regulators approved the first new Alzheimer's drug
in nearly two decades, casting aside doubts about the therapy's
effectiveness. The approval Monday of the therapy, which has the
molecular name aducanumab and will be sold as Aduhelm, marked a
watershed in Alzheimer's drug research after billions of dollars in
investment. Maker Biogen Inc. developed the therapy to do what
previously approved Alzheimer's medicines can't: slow the
memory-robbing march of the disease. (WSJ)
10. Former shareholders of Celgene (US) have launched a
USD6.4-billion lawsuit against Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS, US)
alleging that the company delayed launching its gene therapy
Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraluecel; also known as liso-cel) in
order to avoid making payments to them. The lawsuit, which was
filed by UMB Bank NA on behalf of the shareholders at the United
States District Court for the Southern District of New York,
claimed that BMS broke its contractual obligations by failing to
make appropriate efforts to secure US FDA approval for Breyanzi
prior to a deadline of 31 December 2020. If the deadline had been
met, then BMS would have had to make milestone payments of USD9 per
share to Celgene shareholders. (IHS Markit Life Sciences' Milena
Izmirlieva)
11. The trend in dining out is solid. Averaged over the week ending
yesterday (6 June), the count of seated diners on the OpenTable
platform was about 10% below the comparable period in 2019, as nice
weather, easing restrictions on restaurants, and rising comfort
levels are boosting restaurant activity. Meanwhile, there was a
dramatic improvement in movie-theater activity last week. Relative
to the comparable week in 2019, box-office revenues were down
roughly 53%, up sharply from recent weeks. Relative to the week
including Memorial Day 2019 (one week earlier), revenues were down
about 58%; still a vast improvement from prior weeks. (IHS Markit
Economists Ben
Herzon and Joel
Prakken)
12. Outstanding US nonmortgage consumer credit rose $19 billion to
$4.24 trillion in April after similar increases during February and
March. The 12-month change in outstanding consumer credit was 2.4%,
2.0 percentage points higher than in March owing to "base
effects"—i.e., comparison to a depressed level in April 2020,
when widespread shutdowns in response to COVID-19 inhibited
economic activity. (IHS Markit Economist David Deull)
a. Revolving credit fell by $2 billion, leaving the entirety of
April's increase in the nonrevolving category of loan, which rose
by $21 billion.
b. In spite of sharp declines a year ago, outstanding revolving
credit was still 5.5% lower this April than last, as consumers have
cut back sharply on credit card borrowing during the pandemic and
paid down card balances.
c. However, nonrevolving debts, which include student and auto
loans, have seen an accelerating increase amid towering demand for
new and used vehicles. The 12-month change in nonrevolving debt in
April 2021 was 4.9%, a return to rates of change seen in late
2019.
d. The ratio of nonmortgage consumer credit to disposable personal
income rose, as expected, increasing 3.4 percentage points to
22.5%. This was a function of the sharply reduced rate of
disbursement of stimulus checks in April relative to March.
e. Outstanding nonmortgage consumer credit rose $19 billion to
$4.24 trillion in April after similar increases during February and
March.
13. Albemarle has announced a set of sustainability goals,
including aiming for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Goals also
include a 35% reduction in carbon intensity for the company's
catalysts and bromine business by 2030, and a commitment to
"growing the lithium business in a carbon-intensity neutral manner
by 2030." The company also announced initiatives around water use
and resource efficiency. (IHS Markit Chemical Advisory)
a. The emission reductions will come in phases, with an early focus
on building out infrastructure to measure and track progress, and
on what CEO Kent Masters calls "low-hanging fruit" projects to cut
emissions. "We've identified some projects and are working on
them," Masters says. This includes water recycling projects in
Australia and Jordan, and a $100 million investment in a thermal
evaporator in Chile.
b. Albemarle is undertaking aggressive capacity expansion in
lithium to meet growing demand from the electric vehicle (EV)
market. Projects in Chile and Australia will, combined, increase
the company's lithium conversion capacity by 175,000 metric
tons/year of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE), with commercial
volumes expected to be available in 2022.
14. A coalition of 11 environmental, health, and consumer groups
has petitioned FDA to ban all uses of PFAS in food and food contact
applications. The petition says FDA should revoke all approvals of
per and poly-fluorinated compounds (PFCs) in food contact materials
unless companies can demonstrate the substances are safe. American
Chemistry Council says the petition is "misguided and unnecessary,"
defends FDA process. While it's unclear if FDA would act on the
petition, new legislation from Congress may force the agency's
hand. Rep Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) introduces bill seeking to
overhaul FDA's Generally Recognized as Safe (GRAS) process.
Criticizing FDA for not taking a tougher stance on PFAS, the
petition urges FDA to revoke all approvals for use of PFAS in food
and food packaging and issue regulation that bans the use of both
short-chain and long-chain PFAS in food packaging and food handling
equipment. Moreover, the petition states FDA should take stronger
action on all per and poly-fluorinated compounds (PFCs) - a broad
category of chemicals that includes PFAS as well as cyclic
chemicals. FDA should require industry to provide information
demonstrating that all PFCs - including types of PFAS that fall
outside the long-chain PFAS (LC-PFAS) and short-chain (SC-PFAS)
categories - do not biopersist or do not cause cancer. (IHS Markit
Food and Agricultural Policy's Margarita Raycheva)
15. Autonomous vehicle (AV) company Cruise LLC has received a
permit that allows it to shuttle passengers in its driverless test
vehicles in California, United States, reports TechCrunch. The
permit, issued by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)
as part of its driverless pilot program, allows Cruise to offer
passengers rides in its vehicles without a human safety operator
behind the wheel, but it does not allow the company to charge
passengers for any rides. Cruise must submit quarterly reports
about the AV operation and outline a passenger safety plan to CPUC.
(IHS Markit Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
16. Ineos is looking to enter the US market in early 2023, as well
as Canada and Mexico, after first launching its Grenadier sport
utility vehicle (SUV) in Europe. The company has appointed Greg
Clark to the post of vice-president of Americas. Clark is tasked
with selecting a location for US headquarters, deciding how to get
dealers in all 50 states, and hiring all staff of US arm
(marketing, compliance managers, warranty administrators, zone
managers, parts and service personnel, and so on). In an interview
with Automotive News, Clark said of the headquarters location, "We
have to make the right decision. Being in an area where we can
attract good talent and attract talent from other places of the
country and that has the appropriate infrastructure is a big
driver." Clark says the ideal location would be within reasonable
driving distance of punishing off-road driving, and he is looking
at locations on the US Eastern Seaboard, near ports and areas with
transportation in place to move parts and vehicles. Clark is
reportedly aiming to have between 30 and 50 dealers open at launch,
with about 70% US market coverage. Once its North American
operations are fully up, Ineos is aiming to sell about 30,000 units
per year. The Grenadier reportedly could be followed by a pick-up
truck and a hydrogen-powered version. (IHS Markit
AutoIntelligence's Stephanie
Brinley)
17. Autonomous vehicle (AV) startup Aurora Innovation is close to
finalising a merger deal with Reinvent Technology Partners Y, a
special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC), reports Reuters. This
deal's targeted valuation, which had been as high as USD20 billion,
is now closer to USD12 billion. According to the report, the
companies are expected to announce the deal as early as next week.
In a separate statement, Aurora has formed a committee of experts
to provide guidance and recommendations on safety matters related
to driverless operations. The Safety Advisory Board includes
outside professionals from fields such as aviation safety,
insurance, medicine, and automotive. The company has also detailed
its own safety efforts by publishing a voluntary safety
self-assessment report. The report discussed Aurora's use of LiDAR,
a virtual testing suite, and how vehicle operators are trained.
(IHS Markit Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
Europe/Middle East/Africa
1. Most major European equity indices closed higher except for
Germany -0.1%; Italy +1.0%, Spain +0.8%, France +0.4%, and UK
+0.1%.
2. 10yr European govt bonds closed lower; Italy +4bps,
France/Germany +2bps, and Spain/UK +1bp.
3. iTraxx-Europe closed flat/49bps and iTraxx-Xover
flat/244bps.
4. Brent crude closed -0.6%/$71.49 per barrel.
5. In 2020, the UK had a total area of 489,000 hectares of land
farmed organically (combined the fully converted area and area
under conversion), an increase of 0.8% compared with 2019,
according to the UK Department for Environment, Food & Rural
Affairs (Defra). This increase was entirely driven by a 12% rise in
the area of in-conversion land compared with the preceding year.
The organically farmed area represents about 3% of the total farmed
area on agricultural holdings in the UK. The area in-conversion
gives an indication of the potential growth in the organic sector.
The three main crop types grown organically are cereals, vegetables
including potatoes and other arable crops. About 62% of UK organic
land is accounted for by permanent grassland; 9% of the total UK
organic area is used to grow cereals. This echoes the performance
across Europe, where the number of producers and amount of organic
land continue to rise to achieve the EU's ambition for 25% of all
agricultural land to be organic by 2030. (IHS Markit Food and
Agricultural Commodities' Hope
Lee)
6. Transport for West Midlands (TfWM) is working with Vodafone,
Nokia, and Chordant to trial a new "mobility cloud" platform on
open roads in the UK. The platform uses 5G-based
vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technology to connect with road users
in the West Midlands and provide them with live updates about local
lane closures, speed restrictions, and traffic incidents. Vodafone
will integrate its 4G and 5G network and multi-access edge
computing (MEC) technology into the platform, which will serve as
"a new type of information superhighway". The platform will offer
real-time road information that will be displayed initially on
users' smartphones, and in the future, on in-car infotainment
systems. (IHS Markit Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
7. The eurozone's harmonized unemployment rate showed another
modest decline in April, the fifth in seven months, from 8.1% to
8.0%. The unemployment rate is now 0.7 percentage point below its
post-pandemic peak in October 2020. (IHS Markit Economist Ken
Wattret)
a. The level of unemployment fell by 134,000 in April compared with
March, the eighth consecutive month-on-month (m/m) decline. April's
three-month moving average rate of decline accelerated sharply to
125,000, roughly three times the equivalent rate of a decline in
February.
b. Since the initial wave of COVID-19 in March 2020, the eurozone
unemployment rate has risen by just 0.9 percentage point net, a
remarkably small increase given the large output and expenditure
losses over the same period. As of the first quarter of 2021, the
latest data available, eurozone GDP was still 5.5% below its
pre-pandemic level in real terms.
c. A comparison with the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period
highlights the remarkable recent resilience of eurozone labor
markets. Between early 2008 and mid-2010, during a less severe
recession, the eurozone unemployment rate rose by three percentage
points (from a similar trough of 7.3% up to 10.3%).
d. The divergence in the unemployment rate over the two periods
reflects three key differences.
i. First, while the initial COVID-19-driven recession in early 2020
was much deeper, it was also much shorter, with the subsequent
second dip in late 2020 and early 2021 much less severe than the
first.
ii. Second, and related to the point above, policy-makers
introduced a variety of labour market support schemes to bridge the
gap to the post-COVID-19 recovery, which is now gathering
momentum.
iii. Third, participation rates declined markedly in some member
states during the COVID-19 shock, partly related to the closures of
schools.
e. Eurozone employment data are released quarterly, and the latest
figures, for the first quarter of 2021, showed a quarter-on-quarter
(q/q) decline of 0.3%. This was the first q/q fall for three
quarters, reflecting the second leg of the COVID-19-driven
recession in the eurozone.
8. Majors BP and Shell, utilities like Vattenfall and RWE, and
chemical refiners like BASF, Linde, and Dow all are likely to
benefit from promised German state funding for 62 hydrogen
projects. Their projects are due a share of over €8 billion ($9.73
billion) in German state and federal funds announced jointly by
Germany's Federal Ministry of Economics and Federal Ministry of
Transport on 28 May. An additional €20 billion ($24 billion) in
backing for projects is set to come from private investors and
other sources so that funding levels reach an expected €33 billion
($40 billion). Germany's funding for the projects is contingent on
the outcome of an application for EU State Aid law exemptions under
the EU's Important Project of Common European Interest (IPCEI)
program. The EU put out a call for proposals to regional companies
to join a hydrogen IPCEI in December. (IHS Markit Climate and
Sustainability News' Cristina Brooks)
9. Greece's GDP rose by 4.4% quarter on quarter (q/q) during the
first quarter of 2021. This follows revised increases of 3.4% q/q
(previously estimated as a rise of 3.1%) and 3.8% q/q (up from 2.7%
q/q) during the third and fourth quarters of 2020, respectively.
(IHS Markit Economist Diego
Iscaro)
a. On a year-on-year (y/y) basis, GDP still declined by 2.3%,
following a drop of 6.9% during the previous quarter. The economy
is now estimated to have declined by 7.8% in 2020, as opposed to
8.0%.
b. Exports continued to rebound during the first quarter, boosted
by a recovery in exports of services, growing by 4.0% q/q. Imports
of goods and services rebounded from their 2.8% q/q decline in the
fourth quarter, rising by 2.0% q/q.
c. The tightening of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions led to
a 1.2% q/q decline in private consumption (-4.9% y/y). Household
spending was still 6.0% below its level during the fourth quarter
of 2019.
10. The Russian government has said that the country is gearing up
to provide the framework to produce 150,000 battery electric
vehicles (BEVs) a year by 2030, according to a Prime-Tass news
agency report. The directive was communicated by the Russian
Economic Development Ministry's department director, Maksim
Kolesnikov. He said, "We believe that the implementation of the
concept [for the development of production and use of electric
transport in Russia - Tass] will allow [the creation of] a new
technological sector in the country and [production of] electric
cars [will have a] share of at least 10% of the total production of
transport vehicles by 2030." Given the rapid ramping up of BEV
production in other major economies, the 150,000 BEV production
target is a modest one, albeit necessarily so given the equally
modest program that the Russian government is currently talking
about to accelerate BEV take-up in the country. (IHS Markit
AutoIntelligence's Tim Urquhart)
11. Car-sharing service provider Delimobil has received a
USD75-million investment from Russia's second-largest lender, VTB
Bank, reports Reuters. In return, VTB Bank has bought a 15% stake
in Delimobil, which runs a fleet of cars that can be hired by the
minute in Russia. The company intends to use the proceeds for
further development and to strengthen its position in the Russian
car-sharing market. Delimobil was established in 2015, and
currently has a fleet of over 15,000 vehicles with more than 1
million members. (IHS Markit Automotive Mobility's Surabhi
Rajpal)
12. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the
African Union announced decisions on 30 May and 1 June
respectively, to suspend Mali's membership and participation in the
organizations' bodies. On 3 June, France announced the suspension
of joint military operations and training activities with Mali and
the World Bank, which is currently financing projects amounting to
USD1.8 billion in Mali, on 4 June suspended its financial
operations there until further notice. (IHS Markit Economists Jihane
Boudiaf and Anton
Casteleijn)
a. After six years of robust real GDP growth averaging 7.5%, Mali's
growth declined by 2% in 2020 due to the impact of the COVID-19
virus pandemic, the worsening political climate and the eventual
imposition of ECOWAS sanctions for several weeks, following the
removal of President Keïta in a military coup on 18 August
2020.
b. To cover the financing gaps that resulted from the impact of the
COVID-19 pandemic, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved a
USD200-million Rapid Credit Facility disbursement to Mali on 30
April 2020. The government announced a pandemic response plan
amounting to 5% of GDP in May 2020, to support businesses and
households.
Asia-Pacific
1. APAC equity markets closed mixed; India +0.4%, South Korea
+0.4%, Japan +0.3%, Mainland China +0.2%, Australia -0.2%, and Hong
Kong -0.5%.
2. China's merchandise exports rose 27.9% year on year (y/y) in May
in US dollar terms, down from 32.3% y/y in April, according to the
General Administration of Customs. Merchandise imports growth
continued to accelerate to 51.1% y/y in May from 43.1% y/y in the
previous month. On a two-year (2020-21) average basis, exports
growth slowed from 16.8% in April to 11.1% in May and imports
growth accelerated from 10.7% to 12.4%. (IHS Markit Economist Yating
Xu)
a. The headline exports slowdown was driven by double-digit
declines in growth of exports to the United States and European
Union. However, exports to Hong Kong, Association of Southeast
Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states, South Korea, and Japan
accelerated. By product, export growth decelerated across high-tech
manufacturing goods, mechanical goods, and labor-intensive
goods.
b. Notably, exports of pandemic-prevention supplies declined year
on year as the global vaccination progress continues to advance and
the pandemic situation in Southeast Asia gradually stabilized.
Meanwhile, exports of consumption goods such as clothes, home
appliances, furniture, and automobiles moderated. On the other
hand, with the production recovery in the United States and
European Union, exports of investment goods and materials such as
general-purpose equipment and plastic accelerated.
c. The acceleration in imports growth was largely driven by a low
base - as imports dropped to contraction in April 2020 - and rising
commodity prices. To illustrate, the import value of crude oil rose
by 105% y/y, while the import volume dropped by 14.6% y/y; the
situation was similar for copper, coal, and iron ore imports. By
product, imports of agricultural products, mechanical goods, and
high-tech manufacturing goods accelerated.
d. Trade surplus continued to increase to USD45.5 billion in May,
while the cumulative surplus increase was down from 174%y/y in
April to 26.5% y/y decline compared to a year ago, expanding from a
4.7% y/y decline in April to 70.2% y/y.
3. Japan's government is debating its future strategy for the
pharmaceutical sector, amid rising concerns within the industry
that the country's drug pricing regulations are increasingly
hampering innovation. The debates over the pharmaceutical sector
come as Japan finalizes its 2021 Basic Policy for Economic and
Fiscal Management and Reform (honebuto in Japanese). Among the
leading drug-pricing topics debated is the long-established 2%
adjustment rate (or adjustment range), also known as the reasonable
zone (R-zone). The adjustment rate, which was set at 2% in April
2000, is added to a drug's market price and is intended to offer a
"cushion" following market price-based revisions of a drug's
National Health Insurance (NHI) price. The overall aim of the
addition of the adjustment rate is to maintain stable drug
distribution in Japan. The debate over the potential revision of
the 2% adjustment rate follows a year of extraordinary pricing
reforms, due in part to the off-year FY 2021 NHI revision cycle, as
well as the impact of the COVID-19 virus pandemic. In addition, the
policies of the 2016 four-minister accord have now also been
carried out, opening the door to a new round of drug pricing
reforms. (IHS Markit Life Sciences' Sophie
Cairns)
4. Toyota Motor is rebranding its corporate investment arm as
Toyota Ventures, which was formerly known as Toyota AI Ventures,
according to a company statement. The new brand has added two
USD150-million early-stage funds - the Toyota Ventures Frontier
Fund and the Toyota Ventures Climate Fund - bringing Toyota
Ventures' total assets under management to more than USD500
million. The Frontier Fund will continue to invest in such areas as
artificial intelligence, automated vehicles, cloud computing, and
robotics, while expanding its range to include smart cities,
digital health, fintech, materials, and energy. The Climate Fund
will be focused on finding and funding early-stage startups that
develop solutions for carbon dioxide reduction. (IHS Markit
Automotive Mobility's Surabhi Rajpal)
5. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, the
Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (which supervises banks
and insurance companies) and the Reserve Bank of Australia issued a
joint statement on 4 June which urges rapid migration from LIBOR
use and requests no new LIBOR-based contracts to be issued from
end-2021. Australian regulators thus have reacted rapidly to apply
the Financial Stability Board (FSB) recommendations on LIBOR
transition. The joint statement warned that continued use of LIBOR
would present "significant risks and disruptions" to financial
stability and integrity, with individual financial groups facing
"financial, conduct, litigation and operational risks" from
inadequate preparation for migration. (IHS Markit Economist Brian
Lawson)
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This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.
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