Monthly GDP rose 0.5% in April, more than reversing a 0.3% decline in March that was revised up from a previously estimated 0.4% decline. The increase in monthly GDP in April mainly reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures and net exports. These were partially offset by negative contributions from nonfarm inventory investment and fixed investment (both residential and nonresidential). The level of GDP in April was 1.1% above the first-quarter average at an annual rate. Implicit in our latest forecast of 2.3% annualized growth of GDP in the second quarter are increases in monthly GDP of 0.3% (not annualized) per month over May and June.

Our index of Monthly US GDP (MGDP) is a monthly indicator of real aggregate output that is conceptually consistent with real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the National Income and Product Accounts. The Monthly GDP Index is consistent with the NIPAs for two reasons: first, MGDP is calculated using much of the same underlying monthly source data that is used in the calculation of GDP. Second, the method of aggregation to arrive at MGDP is similar to that for official GDP. Growth of MGDP at the monthly frequency is determined primarily by movements in the underlying monthly source data, and growth of MGDP at the quarterly frequency is nearly identical to growth of real GDP.

Posted 01 June 2022 by Ben Herzon, US Economist, Insights and Analysis, S&P Global Market Intelligence and

William Magee, Economist, Economics & Country Risk, S&P Global Market Intelligence

This article was published by S&P Global Market Intelligence and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.