China Economic Forecasts and Risk Ratings
China’s Near-Term Economic Outlook
- Mainland China’s economy in the first quarter of 2021 grew at a record pace from 2020, owing to continued economic recovery and extreme low base effect.
- Industrial sector continued to lead the recovery over the service sector on the supply side, as industrial sector activities are less restricted by pandemic control measures.
- The supply-demand gap will keep consumer price inflation pressure at bay, despite rising producer price inflation. The unwinding of mainland China’s stimulus measures should also keep inflation under control.
![China real GDP growth, percent change from prior year, historic and forecast, 2018Q1-2025Q4 and consumer inflation](https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/0421/ChinaRealGDP-Consumerinfaltion-apr21.png)
Country Risk Rating for China
The Communist Party of China’s (CPC) long-term policy – the “2035 Long-Range vision” – emphasizes the long-term goal of becoming a “modernized socialist society”, as well as “dual circulation”, which places greater emphasis on developing domestic markets and industries. China’s 2021 goals highlight technological innovation as a “core position” in China’s development strategy. The government’s short-term priority continues to focus on the recovery of key livelihood indicators under the “six guarantees” framework while preventing further waves of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
![](https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/images/0421/ChinaRiskScoreApr21.png)
A note on our risk ratings: S&P Global derives country risk ratings for 206 countries, based on six separate ratings in each country: Political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security with 22 detailed sub-aggregate risks. These ratings allow you to quantify risk with greater specificity with a scoring system based on a 0.1-10 logarithmic scale. Seven risk bands, from low to extreme, allow you to compare and contrast risk between countries and regions.
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