China Economic Forecasts and Risk Ratings
China’s Near-Term Economic Outlook
- Mainland China’s economy in the first quarter of 2021 grew at a record pace from 2020, owing to continued economic recovery and extreme low base effect.
- Industrial sector continued to lead the recovery over the service sector on the supply side, as industrial sector activities are less restricted by pandemic control measures.
- The supply-demand gap will keep consumer price inflation pressure at bay, despite rising producer price inflation. The unwinding of mainland China’s stimulus measures should also keep inflation under control.
Country Risk Rating for China
The Communist Party of China’s (CPC) long-term policy – the “2035 Long-Range vision” – emphasizes the long-term goal of becoming a “modernized socialist society”, as well as “dual circulation”, which places greater emphasis on developing domestic markets and industries. China’s 2021 goals highlight technological innovation as a “core position” in China’s development strategy. The government’s short-term priority continues to focus on the recovery of key livelihood indicators under the “six guarantees” framework while preventing further waves of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
A note on our risk ratings: S&P Global derives country risk ratings for 206 countries, based on six separate ratings in each country: Political, economic, legal, tax, operational and security with 22 detailed sub-aggregate risks. These ratings allow you to quantify risk with greater specificity with a scoring system based on a 0.1-10 logarithmic scale. Seven risk bands, from low to extreme, allow you to compare and contrast risk between countries and regions.
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