We expect that auto sales in February should recover mildly from the January 2024 result, but sustained momentum seems tough to come by, given the current purchase environment facing auto consumers," said Chris Hopson, principal analyst at S&P Global Mobility. "While pricing, inventory, and incentive trends are seemingly moving in the correct directions, respectively, to promote new vehicle sales growth, high-interest rates, and uncertain economic conditions continue to push against any consistent upshift for demand levels."

The S&P Global Mobility US auto outlook for 2024 reflects sustained, but more moderate growth levels for light vehicle sales. We expect production levels to continue to develop, especially early in the year as some automakers look to continue to restock in the wake of production shutdowns late in 2023 and decent December 2023 sales volume. The advancing production levels set the stage for incentives and inventory to continue to develop, potentially enticing new vehicle buyers who remain on the sidelines due to higher interest rates. S&P Global Mobility projects a calendar-year 2024 light vehicle sales volume of 15.9 million units, a 3% increase from the 2023 tally.

Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains an assumption in the longer-term S&P Global Mobility light vehicle sales forecast. In the immediate term, some month-to-month volatility is anticipated. February BEV share is expected to reach 8.0%, similar to the month prior reading as automakers, dealers, and consumers continue to digest the changes to IRA Federal tax credits to begin the new year. BEV share is expected to advance over the next several periods, pending the rollouts of vehicles such as the Chevrolet Equinox EV, Honda Prologue, and Fiat 500e, all scheduled for market introductions over the first half of 2024.

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.