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[Whitepaper Excerpt]
EV outlook in India: With the implementation of multiple schemes in India, S&P Global Mobility estimates suggest that India's penetration levels for EV production will increase from 2% in 2023 to 24% in 2031. Global penetration will increase from 12% in 2023 to 48% in 2031. With the PLI scheme already in place,
OEMs in India are actively developing EVs for the domestic and export markets. Production of electric light vehicles is forecasted to significantly increase, up from 106,000 units in 2023 to 1.8 million units by 2031.
Rising exports post PLI: After implementing PLI schemes, estimated export volumes from India will increase. Global carmakers that applied for PLI schemes started developing the strategy to shift their exports to India for frugal cost structures and to benefit from the available schemes.
Several carmakers and suppliers that initially missed the PLI schemes later expressed interest in joining. Nevertheless, the slow start of EV penetration in the market made new entrants cautious and inclined to test the waters before committing to substantial investments in the domestic market. Investing in EVs is a capital-intensive business. EV carmakers hesitated to risk their investment in a country where most consumers are value-conscious and the average selling price remains below $15,000. This scenario prompted the Indian government to develop a new EV policy for new players or entrants.
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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.