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Customer LoginsFord plans high-volume SAE L4 autonomous ride-sharing product in 2021, invests in new tech companies
Ford plans to develop Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) Level 4, limited-situation automated vehicles, missing out Level 3. The autonomous products will target "high-volume" ride-sharing and commercial services, before being developed for private ownership. Ford has also announced new investments in its Palo Alto, California, research facilities and in new tech companies
IHS Automotive perspective
- Significance: Ford has announced that it will bring to the market an SAE Level 4 autonomous vehicle in 2021. The vehicle will be "high volume" and preclude human interaction by the absence of a steering wheel and pedals. It will operate in geo-fenced areas with sensor-technology friendly climates, and for which high-definition mapping is available. In addition, Ford is more than doubling its Silicon Valley team and the campus at which it works, and is working with four more autonomous driving start-ups.
- Implications: Ford is the first to claim it will deliver a driverless car in 2021, although others have alluded to Level 3 and other autonomous programmes in a similar timeframe. Level 3 requires a driver to be ready to intervene. The investments announced will support project development, accentuating Ford's decade-plus existing research and development in the area.
- Outlook: Among the most significant elements of the announcement is that Ford will skip Level 3, a path taken by Google several years ago. Ford does not see a situation in which it is reliable and safe to have a driver resume control. Ford's announcement did not indicate which markets or regions will see the first of the cars or whether it will partner with an existing ride-hailing service or strike out on its own. "All options are on the table," CEO Mark Fields said.
Ford announced yesterday (16 August) that the company has set a target of making an SAE Level 4 autonomous vehicle available for ride sharing in 2021, specifically a "high-volume" product. Ford CEO Mark Fields, executive vice-president Raj Nair, and vice-president of research and advanced engineering Ken Washington discussed some of the developments with several IHS Automotive mobility, technology, and auto analysts.
Fields said that Ford believes autonomous vehicles will have as significant an impact on society as the company's first moving assembly line did 100 years ago, but that the company is not in a race to get there first. Ford is, however, in "a race to do what's right for our customers and business", Fields said. Consistent with the company's role as a mainstream, everyman brand, Fields said in a statement, "We're dedicated to putting on the road an autonomous vehicle that can improve safety and solve social and environmental challenges for millions of people − not just those who can afford luxury cars." This is a message that Ford has consistently delivered throughout prior discussions surrounding its Smart Mobility plans, and is central to the company's core values.
Ford will develop the software and algorithms internally, as well as vehicle integration, though Washington said there will be a role for Tier 1 suppliers on the vehicle platform. Ford is developing an advanced platform with redundancies for supporting technology − and systems like braking and steering − which is critical to development and deployment. This is somewhat distinct from a traditional platform − the vehicle's chassis, powertrain, frame, etc − and Nair told us that the company will continue to leverage its traditional global platforms as it develops the new autonomous project, but that it will be specifically configured to ride hailing. At this time, Ford is not committing to a vehicle size or platform for the project. Fields did note that Ford expects opportunities for commercial applications (goods movement and delivery), suggesting variations may come relatively quickly. Fields also noted that the technology will still be expensive; for a commercial application like ride-sharing, this solution may take the cost of a human driver out of the equation, which is a bigger cost than the vehicle or maintenance. This has potential to enable the autonomous vehicle product and service combined to deliver a business case.
Ford shared little about what to expect from the vehicle, only that it will not come with steering wheel or gas and brake pedals, and that it will be specifically designed for commercial mobility services such as ride hailing and ride sharing. In a statement, Nair said that Ford has a unique advantage. "Ford has been developing and testing autonomous vehicles for more than ten years. We have a strategic advantage because of our ability to combine the software and sensing technology with the sophisticated engineering necessary to manufacture high-quality vehicles. That is what it takes to make autonomous vehicles a reality for millions of people around the world."
Ford has not yet announced which markets might see the vehicle first, but Nair confirmed it would be geo-fenced and weather friendly to the sensors. Nair said Ford has already developed the technology to handle complete dark and snow, though areas with heavy snowfall are still out of bounds of the project.
The four companies Ford announced investment or collaboration with include a provider of light detection and ranging (LiDAR) sensors, a computer vision and machine learning company, a high-resolution 3D mapping company, and a machine vision company that has discovered the neural code the eye uses to transmit visual information to the brain. Velodyne is the LiDAR sensor company; Ford has invested an undisclosed amount in the company with the aim of quickly mass-producing a more affordable automotive LiDAR system. The computer vision and learning company is SAIPS, which Ford has fully acquired to "further strengthen its expertise in artificial intelligence and enhance computer vision," according to a statement. Another investment has been in Civil Maps, a 3D mapping company in Berkeley, California, expected to give Ford another way to develop the high-resolution 3D maps of autonomous vehicle environments that are critical to the process. Finally, Ford has an exclusive licensing agreement with Nirenberg Neuroscience, which has a powerful machine vision platform for performing navigation, object recognition, facial recognition, and other functions, Ford's statement said. This partnership is expected to bring humanlike intelligence to machine learning modules of Ford's autonomous vehicle virtual driver system. Ford did not disclose an amount for any of these investments. However, Velodyne LiDAR issued a press statement indicating that Ford and China's Baidu are co-lead investors in the latest round of funding for the company, and that the total figure is USD150 million.
Ford's expansion of its Silicon Valley operations includes creating a dedicated campus in Palo Alto, California, an expansion of its existing office building. Ford will add two new buildings and 150,000 square feet of work and laboratory space adjacent to the current Research and Innovation Center. The building expansion will support a doubling of the size of the team by the end of 2017, and the campus will open in mid-2017. Ford's Research and Innovation Center opened in January 2015 and has more than 130 employees.
As to whether Ford will partner with another ride-sharing or ride-hailing company when the vehicles are commercialised or go it alone is not clear. What geographical areas will be targeted first is also not clear. The size of the vehicle is not clear, though Nair indicated that a hybrid powertrain may have advantages over an electric vehicle (EV) powertrain. The company's long history of working with commercial vehicle fleets for delivery services, through vans and trucks, might prove a very helpful strength in creating autonomous vehicles designed for movement of goods. When asked how involved Ford might be in providing the service of mobility and not just the vehicle, Fields said essentially that it depends on the situation. Ford needs to establish where it wants to play, how it can win there and what capabilities it will need to win. From there, it can determine the appropriate business model. Among the potential revenue stream models Ford is considering include owning ride-hailing vehicles and services, selling them but being part of the revenue from the ride hailing service, generating revenue from the maintenance of a ride hailing or commercial fleet, and other opportunities.
According to Ford, the definition of SAE Level 4 covers fully automated driving, where no driver is necessary; it can handle all situations automatically but in specific application cases such as within a geo-fenced area. SAE Level 5 covers driverless cars, which can handle any situation, automatically. SAE Level 3 covers highly automated cars in which a driver might not need to monitor a situation closely but would need to take over immediately. As Nair told IHS Automotive, Ford believes that transition from Level 3 to Level 4 will be too difficult and it will skip Level 3 entirely. The company will continue to invest in driver assist systems, tripling investment in those technologies, but does not believe a stepping-stone approach will be effective.
Outlook and implications
Among the most significant elements of the announcement is that Ford will skip Level 3, a path taken by Google several years ago. Ford does not see a situation in which it is reliable and safe to have a driver resume control of such a car. Ford's announcement did not indicate which markets or regions will see the first Level 4 cars or whether it will partner with an existing ride-hailing service or strike out on its own. "All options are on the table," Mark Fields said in an interview with several IHS Automotive analysts.
While several automakers are investing in mobility companies and looking to understand and expand capabilities, Ford has also established smart mobility research projects that have the mission of giving the company a deeper understanding of what consumers might want and how they might use shared mobility in a variety of forms, how to develop the platforms and logistics software, and some of the situational differences inherent from one city to another. This intelligence should help Ford be able to go to market with a product or series of products a step ahead in execution. Ford may also leverage the FordPass program to manage customer engagement and user experience holistically. That Ford says its car will reach SAE Level 4 and not SAE Level 5, which also communicates that the company believes this is not the full development and deployment of autonomous driving − there will yet be more technical challenges to resolve.
There remains risk in the business moves. While Washington said that Ford is moving towards where it believes mobility needs will be in the future and expects to be well positioned, there are many competitors also looking at the same thing. Even if Ford gets there first, a fast follower or a competitor's alternative technology or approach may end up eclipsing the Dearborn automaker's efforts. Identifying where mobility needs will be does not rule out multiple paths to get there, while the industry continues to adjust to that moving target as the mobility landscape continues to evolve.
About this article
The above article is from IHS Automotive Same-Day Analysis of automotive news, events and trends, and is a deliverable of the World Markets Automotive Service. The service averages thirty stories per day and also provides competitor and country intelligence. Get a free trial.