Pulling from advertised dealer inventory data through the week of Sept. 11, S&P Global Mobility delivers the following insights:

The auto industry continues its year-long trend of seeing inventories drop at month-end, then surge through the first two weeks of the following month. The total advertised dealer inventory count is slightly down from last month's high and now stands at 1.966 million units as of the end of the week of Sept. 11 — still representing a substantial increase since the beginning of the year. If you smooth the peaks and valleys to a trend line, it is a stable climb of about 50,000 units of increased inventory per month - from 1.6 million as of the week of Dec 22, 2022.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Dealer Advertised Inventory data, week of Sept. 11, 2023 ©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Full-size pickup trucks have gotten really expensive

Full-size pickup trucks have been America's workhorse for decades. But the pricing ladder in the past year has swung this segment firmly into luxury-vehicle territory. According to inventories, it's nearly impossible to purchase a full-size pickup for less than $55,000. In fact, the percentage of big trucks priced above $55,000 has soared compared to this time last year. Meanwhile, vehicles with MSRPs below $55k represented 35% of the advertised inventory a year ago; now this is down to 24%.

A year ago, 65 percent of full-size pickups were advertised above $55,000; as of the week of Sept. 11, that figure jumped to 76 percent. In the case of the Toyota Tundra and GMC Sierra 1500, more than half of all advertised inventory is above $65,000. The Ford F-150 has not had such a dramatic decrease on the low end (27% to 24%), but vehicles with MSRPs over $65k have moved from 32% of their advertised inventory to 47%.

Source: S&P Global Mobility Dealer Advertised Inventory data, week of Sept. 11, 2023 ©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Mid-sized trucks and the UAW strike

If the UAW continues to strike the three mid-sized pickup truck plants, might consumers face shortages, and might rivals pounce to gain market share?

Here are the respective advertised inventories as of the end of the week of Sept. 11, along with their most recent quarterly sales figures.

INVENTORY* 2Q 2023 SALES

Jeep Gladiator 24,249 13,751

Chevrolet Colorado 7,835 19,190

GMC Canyon 2,407 6,708

Ford Ranger 1,358 12,6

Ford Maverick 3,386 21,021

* As of the end of the week of Sept. 11, 2023

Source: S&P Global Mobility Dealer Advertised Inventory data ©2023 S&P Global Mobility

These numbers above, however, represent advertised dealer inventory. Witnesses have seen parking lots near the striking factories filled with finished (or possibly unfinished) midsize trucks that might not yet be listed in dealer inventories.

As for rivals to the Ford, GM, and Stellantis mid-size trucks, the Toyota Tacoma has the most inventory, at about 31,000 units. But that doesn't necessarily reflect a large days' supply; Toyota sold 63,262 units in the second quarter. And while Hyundai Santa Cruz dealer advertised inventories have doubled since this time last year, to 5,755 units, Hyundai sold 10,753 units in 2Q 2023. Similar quick-to-turn ratios exist for the Honda Ridgeline and Nissan Frontier. The possibility of conquesting share from the legacy domestic brands appears incremental at best - especially if the strike plants come back online soon.

MIDSIZE PICKUP TRUCK INVENTORIES

Source: S&P Global Mobility Dealer Advertised Inventory data, week of Sept. 11, 2023 ©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Luxury brands managing the '23 selldown

Moving outgoing model-year vehicles off the showroom floor is a challenge for premium brands. Nothing says luxury less than distressed merchandise. Overall, the luxury segment is managing the 2023 model year selldown pretty well, from 305,000 units in mid-July down to 275,000 in mid-September.

To be sure, the Japanese luxury brands often begin turning over their model year in October, so they still have some time. However, Lexus' 2023 dealer advertised inventory increased in September.

Among the European brands, Audi engineered a summer selldown of Q5 crossovers, giving it the largest inventory decrease in the luxury segment - essentially the same unit count as Lexus as of the week of Sept. 11. The brand with the most leftover 2023s — Mercedes-Benz — is seeing numbers come down slightly. But the brand also had a spring launch of the big-selling 2024 model year GLC crossover, which might skew the '23 to '24 ratio. Volvo saw a summer spike in 2023 model availability, and has managed to sell off a chunk of that number, but still has more '23s in inventory now than in mid-June.

REMAINING 2023 MODEL YEAR INVENTORIES — LUXURY

Source: S&P Global Mobility Dealer Advertised Inventory data, week of Sept. 11, 2023 ©2023 S&P Global Mobility

Mainstream brand inventories tell differing stories

Among mainstream brands, every OEM seems to have a different resolution to sell down their 2023 inventory.

Overall, incoming stocks of 2024 models are ramping up faster than the 2023s are selling down. Chevrolet dealers are already advertising more 2024s than 23s. And Ram's '23 selldown is on pace with its '24 ramp-up. However, the Ford brand is at a new high for 2023 models in dealer stocks as of the week of Sept. 11, and has hardly any 2024 models listed.

Toyota has faced a limited days' supply of inventories on many products, and their 2023 stocks have decreased promptly over the past six weeks as dealers wait for 2024s. Meanwhile, Honda has been well into supplying 2024 model year vehicles since mid-late June - mostly due to the spring arrivals of the 2024 CR-V and Accord.

REMAINING 2023 MODEL YEAR INVENTORIES — MAINSTREAM

Source: S&P Global Mobility Dealer Advertised Inventory data, week of Sept. 11, 2023 ©2023 S&P Global Mobility

LIGHT VEHICLE SALES FORECASTING

THE AUTO INDUSTRY SHARE WARS WILL RESUME IN '23

SUBSCRIBE TO OUR TOP 10 INDUSTRY TRENDS NEWSLETTER

AVERAGE VEHICLE AGE REACHES RECORD 12.5 YEARS

LOWER-CREDIT BUYERS PUSHED OUT OF NEW VEHICLES

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.