[Whitepaper Excerpt]

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused prices of nickel, lithium, and other materials to soar, compounding the pain of the global chip shortage and other supply chain woes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prices of nickel and aluminum have been breaking records. Propulsion & Sustainability team at S&P Global Mobility has analyzed the impact of raw material prices for different cathode chemistries and the potential impact on battery pack cost. The purpose of this paper is to describe the trend of changing battery chemistries and battery pack cost forecast till 2030 under the foreseen raw material prices trend.

Battery demand and chemistry in passenger vehicles
In the European Union (EU), the ambitions of 55% CO2 target reduction from 2021 to 2030 and a zero-emission 2035 passenger car market will accelerate electrification. According to H1 2022 powertrain-based sales forecast from the S&P Mobility team, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) share for EU passenger cars is projected to increase from 9.8% in 2021 to 67.9% in 2030. This will result in a yearly capacity of 592 gigawatt-hour battery demand in 2030 from just 56 gigawatt-hour in 2021. Lithium-ion batteries will ace the race amongst all other battery chemistry types. The EU passenger vehicle market for lithium-ion batteries is estimated to reach a cumulative size of nearly 3,000 gigawatt-hour between 2021 to 2030. The battery pack and electric drive unit that make up a BEV powertrain are anticipated to increase in value from 13.8 to 50 billion euros by 2030.

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Posted 15 August 2022 by Monika Punshi, Senior Research Analyst, Automotive, S&P Global Mobility

This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.