Industry brand loyalty rates trended upward in the first half of 2024 following several years of flat or declining values, according to a new S&P Global Mobility analysis of new vehicle registration data through the first half of the year.

The industry's brand loyalty rate through June stands at 52.5%, reflecting a 1.9 percentage-point improvement over the same period in 2023, marking the first year-over-year increase since 2020. The year-over-year increase in loyalty is a positive sign for the industry after several years of lower loyalty levels due to inventory shortages and post-pandemic recovery.

More than half of all brands in the industry saw a year-over-year increase of 1 percentage point or better. This group included both mainstream and luxury brands, which saw increases of 1.9 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively. Growing inventory levels and a strong pipeline of return-to- market households were the primary factors in loyalty gains for the first half of 2024.

"Last year we saw a big jump in the number of households returning to market for a new vehicle, but the inventory was lacking," said Vince Palomarez, associate director, loyalty product management at S&P Global Mobility. "This year, return-to-market volume remains consistent; however, inventory levels are up more than 40%, so households have more opportunity to remain loyal to their previous brand."

Conquest trends adversely affected

The increase in brand loyalty adversely affected conquest volume, as both sectors experienced year-over-year declines in the first half compared to the same period last year. The luxury brands, which experienced an 18% year-over-year increase for the first half of 2023, faced the largest decline, dropping 6.4% in the first half of 2024. Meanwhile, mainstream brands, while still declining year over year, saw conquest levels fall 1% vs. the first half of 2023.

"The positive jump in loyalty came at the expense of conquests," said Tom Libby, associate director for loyalty solutions and industry analysis at S&P Global Mobility. "Past years have shown that increases in both loyalty and conquests are possible if the pool of return-to-market rises as well. The first half of 2024 showed little-to-no change in return to market, so either loyalty or conquest were going to be affected."

Among individual brands, Tesla continues its run as the leader in brand loyalty with a rate of 67.8% for the first half of 2024. While all Tesla models retain more than 60% of their previous owners, the Model 3 remains the leader in the brand's lineup with a loyalty rate of 72.1%.

"Tesla has historically been a brand with strong loyal ties among their consumer base, despite a limited product portfolio," said Palomarez. "Changes in BEV prioritization among other OEMs, along with Tesla's directive to cut pricing when needed, has kept households from defecting."

Additional mid-year highlights:

• General Motors leads all multi-brand manufacturers in manufacturer loyalty for the first half of 2024, at 67.7%.
• Jaguar, Land Rover, and Lincoln are among the highest year-over-year gainers in brand loyalty, each improving rates by more than 6 percentage points.
• The Lincoln Nautilus is the current leader in model loyalty at 46.7%.

Get more details on our mid-year analysis by watching our loyalty webinar. Webinar is available live [August 29 at 1 pm ET] or on demand.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.