Future battery technology and vehicle thermal management may help narrow the shortfall with 'certified' distances and lessen range anxiety

A Tesla Model 3 Performance AWD has a maximum battery range of 372 miles. But the same vehicle, under the same conditions, also has a maximum battery range of 310 miles.

Which one is right? Both, and neither, when real-world conditions and battery thermal management are taken into account. This lack of consistency in calculating battery range as marketed to the buying public - in this case between the European NEDC and US EPA standards and protocols - can lead to consumer confusion in the journey to mass adoption of electric vehicles. After all, 62 miles is a lot of variances when you are unsure of your next charging location.

This variation is just as annoying as (and not dissimilar to) the difference between quoted and real-world fuel economy. But you can find a fully functioning gas station pretty much anywhere. So long as the nascent EV charging network leaves potential customers leery of their car running out of juice with nowhere to recharge, range anxiety will remain a barrier to EV sales growth.

According to the most recent S&P Global Mobility Consumer Insights Surveys, while 8 in 10 people in 2021 expressed interest in purchasing an EV, only 6 in 10 people indicated the same desire in 2022. The main reason for this backtracking is the lack of charging stations as well as the long charging time for EVs ­- both of which are tangential emotions to range anxiety. And while more than two-thirds of respondents considered an EV driving range of 150 to 350 miles as acceptable, many respondents expressed driving range concerns.

Though some industry leaders say charging time has replaced range anxiety as the key trust barrier, extreme climate conditions may bring specific range concerns back into play. Differences in vehicles' thermal management systems, which are responsible for regulating both battery and internal cabin temperatures, can cause significant deviations between EVs' rated range and actual real-world range. The BMW i3, for instance, can lose up to 50% of its available driving range in extremely cold conditions.

Efforts to reconcile the difference between a BEV's rated range and its actual driving range under real-world conditions are proving to be a challenge. The rated or manufacturer-advertised driving range for EVs is typically determined by conducting tests over a predetermined route, using a specific set of parameters and conditions. Since certain countries apply different driving standards or cycles during testing, this can lead to the same vehicle having different driving range results across different regions.

When compared against Europe's Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (WLTP) or China's Chinese Local Test Cycles (CLTC), the US EPA combined driving cycle further applies a correction factor to all published figures, resulting in lower range values than theoretically possible. Case in point - the aforementioned Tesla Model 3 has a reported 20 percent variance in available range depending on regional requirements.

Other factors such as a higher vehicle body weight or larger frontal area, which contribute to air resistance and drag, can also lower the rated range - particularly in constant-speed highway driving tests. Overall, statistical analysis showed that weight, motor power, and battery capacity had the most significant impact on BEV's actual driving range. And because consumers have expressed a preference during the past two decades for SUVs - which are inherently bigger, heavier, and less aerodynamic than a slippery sedan - this exacerbates the engineering challenge.

In addition to these vehicle parameters, driving profiles - patterns that govern how a vehicle is operated in terms of speed, acceleration, braking, and other driving behavior - unique to each region can also affect the efficiency and overall energy consumption of the vehicle. This complexity has made comparing the driving range of vehicles approved in different regions extremely difficult.

To allow for better model-to-model comparisons across regions, S&P Global Mobility has standardized driving ranges according to the WLTP, which offers a more realistic measurement of the range and efficiency of a vehicle in real-world driving conditions. The analysis of more than 900 BEVs sold between 2017 and 2022 shows that battery capacity is positively correlated with driving range, particularly in smaller-segment vehicles.

As newer EV models will have higher battery energy density - driven by design optimization and removing redundant battery furniture through concepts such as cell-to-pack - driving ranges are expected to increase in parallel. S&P Global Mobility forecasts that the average quoted battery capacity of BEVs produced will rise from 60kWh in 2022 to 79kWh in 2030, driven by such improvements.

Consequently, innovations in battery technology represent the most effective way to increase the BEV driving range. Using solid batteries with lithium metal or silicon anodes, optimizing battery pack energy density, or cell-to-pack or cell-to-structure technologies all look promising to achieve extended range.

On the flip side, equal care must be given to thermal management systems that regulate temperature and battery conditioning. Ambient temperature affects both the driving range of electric vehicles and battery performance. Since EV batteries operate within a narrow optimum range, temperatures below or above can reduce their performance significantly or even cause safety concerns.

S&P Global Mobility has performed modeling work to objectively quantify EV range in simulated conditions more accurately reflecting real-world conditions, as well as under three different climatic profiles mimicking temperate, continental, and hot desert climates.

To achieve proper battery conditioning, manufacturers are increasingly using coolants to cool down and warm up the battery. Managing temperature within the cabin of the vehicle in cold climates is also important for both range and occupant comfort. Using heat pumps could save energy and increase driving range, but they become less effective than current electric heaters at significantly lower temperatures.

While other energy-saving options exist - including software controls to provide personalized temperature, radiated surfaces, or heated steering wheels - they only make purchasing an EV more expensive.

Addressing real-life driving range concerns will continue to demand advancements in battery technology and thermal management systems from automakers and suppliers. Those who can balance cost, comfort, and efficiency while accounting for regional test standards and driving patterns will be more effective in mitigating range anxiety and increasing EV adoption.

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This article was published by S&P Global Mobility and not by S&P Global Ratings, which is a separately managed division of S&P Global.